Premise 1: A True Prophet’s Predictions Must Come To Pass
Scripture provides a clear and objective test for prophetic authority: when a prophet speaks in the name of the Lord, what he predicts must come to pass. This is not a secondary measure—it is the definitive standard. The Bible makes it abundantly clear that a true prophet does not speculate, revise, or miss—because God does not err.
How You Will Know a True Prophet
| Scripture (KJV) | Reference |
|---|---|
| “When a prophet speaketh in the name of the LORD, if the thing follow not, nor come to pass…that is the thing which the LORD hath not spoken…” | Deuteronomy 18:22 |
| “When the word of the prophet shall come to pass, then shall the prophet be known…” | Jeremiah 28:9 |
| “When this cometh to pass…then shall they know that a prophet hath been among them.” | Ezekiel 33:33 |
| “How shall we know the word which the LORD hath not spoken? When a prophet speaketh…if the thing follow not…” | Deuteronomy 18:21–22 |
This standard leaves no room for failed predictions, partial fulfillments, or later reinterpretations. A prophecy either comes to pass exactly as spoken, or it does not. If it does not, Scripture is unequivocal: the message was not from God. Claims of sincerity, good intentions, or spiritual influence cannot override this test. The authority of a prophet stands or falls on the accuracy of what he foretells.
If a prophecy does not come to pass, it is not a minor discrepancy to be explained away—it directly calls into question the claim of divine authority. According to Scripture, a prophet whose predictions fail has not spoken for God.
To Falsely Prophesy in God’s Name Is a Serious Matter
All who claim prophetic authority must be measured by this standard. Scripture sets the test with clarity and precision because the stakes are so high—distinguishing true revelation from falsehood is essential. Over and over God and Scripture speak warning and judgment to those who prophecy in His name who did not hear from Him , or the things they prophesied were inaccurate.
God’s Warning Against False Prophets (KJV)
| Scripture (KJV) | Reference |
|---|---|
| “The prophet which shall presume to speak a word in my name, which I have not commanded him to speak…even that prophet shall die.” | Deuteronomy 18:20 |
| “I have not sent these prophets, yet they ran: I have not spoken to them, yet they prophesied.” | Jeremiah 23:21 |
| “Behold, I am against the prophets…that use their tongues, and say, He saith.” | Jeremiah 23:31 |
| “They say still unto them that despise me, The LORD hath said…when I have not spoken.” | Jeremiah 23:17 |
| “If they be prophets…then let them now make intercession…that the vessels…go not to Babylon.” | Jeremiah 27:18 |
| “Woe unto the foolish prophets, that follow their own spirit, and have seen nothing!” | Ezekiel 13:3 |
| “Because, even because they have seduced my people, saying, Peace; and there was no peace…” | Ezekiel 13:10 |
| “Her prophets have daubed them with untempered morter, seeing vanity, and divining lies unto them…” | Ezekiel 22:28 |
| “The prophets prophesy falsely…my people love to have it so: and what will ye do in the end thereof?” | Jeremiah 5:31 |
Since 1820—the year Joseph Smith claimed his First Vision—there have been repeated prophetic statements within the LDS movement made by leaders who were trusted and revered as true prophets of God, yet whose predictions did not come to pass. In fact, the number and nature of these failed or unfulfilled prophecies are significant enough that, when measured against the biblical standard for true prophecy, many of these leaders would not meet the test. These include specific predictions regarding the establishment and permanence of the New Jerusalem, as well as statements anticipating events tied to the end of the world that ultimately did not occur.
Challenge Question: When numerous prophecies made by respected founders and leaders have failed—especially on matters of doctrinal importance—why have these failures not been more seriously examined, given that they do not meet the biblical test of a true prophet?
Premise 2: Evaluating The Prophetic Record Of Joseph Smith
Scripture provides a clear and objective standard for evaluating anyone who claims to speak for God. A true prophet does not merely speak with conviction or influence—his words must prove true. The test is not partial accuracy, sincere intent, or spiritual impact, but complete reliability when speaking in the name of the Lord.
“When a prophet speaketh in the name of the Lord, if the thing follow not, nor come to pass, that is the thing which the Lord hath not spoken…” — Deuteronomy 18:22 (KJV)
This standard is uncompromising. Even a single failed prophecy—spoken as revelation from God—places the claim to prophetic authority in question. With that biblical framework in place, the prophetic record of Joseph Smith can be examined.
Expanded Prophetic Record of Joseph Smith (with Sources)
| Prophecy / Claim | Prophecy | Outcome / Historical Record |
|---|---|---|
| Temple in Independence, Missouri | Temple to be built in Independence “in this generation” — Doctrine & Covenants 84:2–5 | No temple was built there within that generation. |
| Zion Established in Missouri | Independence prophesied to be “the center place” of Zion — Doctrine & Covenants 57:1–3 | The Saints were expelled from Missouri; the church relocated west. |
| Zion Redeemed “Not Many Years Hence” | Zion would be redeemed “not many years hence” — History of the Church, Vol. 2, p. 145 | Zion was not restored in Missouri within that expected timeframe. |
| David W. Patten Mission | Patten called to serve a mission the following spring — Doctrine & Covenants 114:1 | Patten was killed in 1838 before that mission could occur. |
| Second Coming Within Lifetime Context | Statements indicating Christ’s coming near within the lifetime of some present — History of the Church, Vol. 2, p. 182; Vol. 5, p. 336 | That generation passed, and the Second Coming did not occur. |
| Civil War Becoming Global Destruction | War beginning in South Carolina would involve “all nations” — Doctrine & Covenants 87:1–3 | The Civil War began in South Carolina but did not become the global conflict described at that time. |
| Gathering to Missouri as End-Time Center | Missouri identified as central gathering place of Zion — Doctrine & Covenants 57; 84 | Later teaching shifted to a broader global/spiritual gathering. |
| Governmental Collapse / End-Time Upheaval | Prophesy of widespread national destruction (Civil War) tied to last days — Discourses attributed to Joseph Smith, e.g., Journal of Discourses (early LDS teaching context) | The United States endured conflict but did not collapse in the anticipated manner. |
| Salem Treasure Revelation | Revelation of hidden wealth in Salem for the church — Doctrine & Covenants 111 | No treasure was found; the trip produced no financial gain. |
| Canadian Copyright Mission | Revelation directing sale of Book of Mormon copyright in Canada — Early LDS historical accounts (e.g., David Whitmer, later recollections) | The effort failed; no sale occurred. |
These prophecies and purported revelations were not vague impressions about distant events, but specific expectations tied to identifiable people, places, and timeframes. Joseph Smith published these revelations publicly to warn and instruct his followers, presenting them with the weight of divine authority. When measured against the consistent biblical standard for prophetic authority, the question is not how such statements might be reinterpreted, but whether they meet the test God Himself has established.
Contrasting Biblical Prophets
When measured against the prophets of Scripture—such as Malachi, Jeremiah, Zechariah, and David—the contrast is striking. These men recorded prophecies tied to identifiable people, places, and timeframes, many of which were fulfilled in verifiable history.
The Old Testament alone contains hundreds of messianic prophecies concerning Jesus Christ. Below are a small selection, along with estimated time gaps and probability illustrations demonstrating the specificity and improbability of such fulfillments occurring by chance.
| Prophecy and Details | Location in Bible | Years Before Event Occurred | Probability of Fulfillment |
| Jesus born in Bethlehem | Micah 5:2 | ca. 768 years | 1 in 105 or 100,000 |
| A messenger will prepare the way for the Messiah | Malachi 3:1 | ca. 466 years | 1 in 103 or 1,000 |
| Jesus will enter Jerusalem on a donkey | Zechariah 9:9 | ca. 513 years | 1 in 102 or 100 |
| Will be betrayed by a friend and suffer wounds in His hands | Zechariah 13:6 | ca. 513 years | 1 in 103 or 1,000 |
| Betrayed for 30 pieces of silver | Zechariah 11:12-13 | ca. 513 years | 1 in 1011 or 100,000,000,000 |
| Betrayal money be used to purchase Potter’s field | Zechariah 11:13 | ca. 513 years | 1 in 105 or 1,000,00 |
| Messiah will remain silent while afflicted | Isaiah 53:7 | ca. 772 years | 1 in 103 or 1,000 |
| Messiah will die by having His hands and feet pierced | Psalm 22:16 | ca. 963 years | 1 in 104 or 10,000 |
These examples highlight the precision of God’s foreknowledge and His ability to reveal future events through His appointed prophets. While this chart represents only a small sample of the many prophecies that have come to pass, it clearly demonstrates the specificity and accuracy that characterize the biblical record. Many of these prophecies were given centuries in advance—often 400 to 900 years before their fulfillment—yet they came to pass in verifiable detail.
By contrast, the prophecies attributed to Joseph Smith in the chart above frequently involved events expected within his own generation, tied to immediate people, places, and outcomes—yet they did not occur as predicted.
The contrast is not merely historical—it is theological. Scripture establishes a clear and unchanging standard: when God speaks through a true prophet, His word comes to pass with complete accuracy. The biblical prophets consistently demonstrate this pattern, often speaking centuries in advance with precise and verifiable fulfillment. By contrast, when prophetic claims are tied to near-term events that fail to occur as stated, the issue is not interpretation but authority. The standard has already been given.
Challenge Question: If God has clearly defined how a true prophet is to be recognized—and that standard requires complete accuracy—how should we evaluate any prophetic voice whose predictions did not come to pass as spoken?
Premise 3: Evaluating The Prophetic Record Of Other Leaders
The question of prophetic reliability extends beyond Joseph Smith to those who followed him. Throughout LDS history, church presidents, apostles, and influential teachers have spoken on future events, doctrine, and the last days with language that carried significant authority. If the biblical standard for prophecy is consistent, then it must be applied across generations—not only to a founder, but to all who claim to speak for God.
Among these later voices are figures such as Joseph Fielding Smith, Brigham Young, and Bruce R. McConkie—men whose teachings shaped doctrine and expectation for millions.
Selected Prophetic or Authoritative Claims from Later LDS Leaders
| Leader / Claim | Statement (with Source) | Outcome / Historical Record |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Fielding Smith – Man Will Not Reach the Moon | “Man will never reach the moon…” — Doctrines of Salvation, Vol. 3, p. 203 (1961) | Apollo 11 landed on the moon in 1969. |
| Brigham Young – Adam-God Doctrine | Adam identified as God the Father — Journal of Discourses 1:50–51 (1852) | Later rejected by the LDS Church; no longer taught as doctrine. |
| Brigham Young – Eternal Polygamy Required for Exaltation | “The only men who become Gods… are those who enter into polygamy” — Journal of Discourses 11:269 | Officially discontinued in 1890; not required in modern LDS teaching. |
| Heber C. Kimball – Imminent U.S. Destruction | Warned of near-term national collapse and widespread destruction — Journal of Discourses 5:134 (1857) | The United States endured conflict but did not collapse in the anticipated timeframe. |
| Wilford Woodruff – Polygamy Never to Be Removed | Declared the principle would never be abandoned — Journal of Discourses 13:166 | Official Manifesto (1890) ended the practice in the LDS Church. |
| Bruce R. McConkie – Doctrinal Finality Claims | Asserted fixed doctrinal conclusions with certainty — Mormon Doctrine (1958 edition) | Multiple teachings later revised, softened, or clarified by LDS leadership. |
| Spencer W. Kimball – Lamanite Prophecy | Taught that Lamanites (Native Americans) would become a dominant and righteous people in fulfillment of prophecy — General Conference, Oct. 1960 | Not fulfilled in the specific, literal national or demographic sense described. |
| Joseph Fielding Smith – No Death Before the Fall (Earth History Claim) | Taught no death occurred on earth before Adam — Doctrines of Salvation, Vol. 1, pp. 108–109 | Contradicted by modern scientific consensus; later leaders have softened this stance. |
| Brigham Young – Return to Missouri (Zion) | Taught the Saints would return to Jackson County as the center place of Zion — Journal of Discourses (multiple sermons) | The church permanently established its headquarters in Utah. |
These men were pillars within the movement—respected leaders whose words carried the weight of prophetic authority. What they taught was not presented as speculation, but as truth to be received and followed. Many reaffirmed earlier expectations surrounding Zion in Independence, Missouri, and spoke with urgency about events they believed would unfold in the near term—expectations that, as stated, did not come to pass.
Scripture, however, provides a clear safeguard. Believers are instructed to “try the spirits” and to measure all claims against the revealed Word of God. More specifically, the Bible establishes an objective standard for prophetic authority: when God speaks, He declares “the end from the beginning” (Isaiah 46:10), and what He foretells comes to pass. A true prophet does not speak with uncertainty, nor does God require later correction.
These leaders did not present their words as personal opinion, but as revelation—truths they believed came directly from God. That raises the central issue: if such predictions did not occur as spoken, how can they be reconciled with the biblical standard that God’s word is always fulfilled with complete accuracy?
Challenge Question: If Scripture commands us to test every prophetic claim and declares that God alone “declares the end from the beginning,” how should we evaluate leaders who spoke in God’s name yet made predictions that did not come to pass as stated?